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Gallup International Association – End of Year 2018 Press Release on Hope and Optimism on Global Peace

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Optimism for the New 2019 year continues to prevail in the World,

although pessimism is increasing,

 according to the first and oldest Global Hope “End of the Year” Index by Gallup International.

Prospects for a better 2019 year are increasing for a majority of those surveyed in Africa (typically quite an optimistic region despite living conditions), in India, in non-EU Europe, in the USA and in Latin America.  Conversely, we also see more pessimism about the year ahead in the Middle East, in Russia, and to an extent in Western Europe.
Over all optimism for the new Year traditionally prevails in the majority of the countries around the world with the exception this year of Turkey, Serbia, UK, Poland, Czech Republic, Russia, Bosnia (BiH), Bulgaria, Hong Kong, France, Italy, Lebanon, Jordan and Republic of Korea.
Our global survey also asked whether people expect the next 12 months to be more or less peaceful. While 28% of the world expect it to be more peaceful, 34% believe it will be more troubled.  Confidence in peace shines brightest in India, Ghana, Albania, Nigeria and interestingly in Pakistan. At the other end of the scale, ongoing weekend protests in France and the ‘gilets jaunes’ see France register as the country where the most (70%) feel next year will be more troubled.  

Kancho Stoychev, President GIA:

“For decades the End of the Year global poll is registering a paradox: people living in wealthier countries tend to be more pessimistic about the coming New Year. And vice versa. It seems that the fear of losing what you have is bigger than the fear not to have. 

EU is increasingly pessimistic and there is no need to enumerate why. The same is with Russia while optimism for the next year in the USA is the highest it has been for the last decade. The performance of the US economy is possibly a key driver here.

Traditionally in previous decades more people around the World expect a peaceful New Year rather than a troubled one with a permanent exemption: The Middle East. But now for the first time in this century a growing number of West Europeans expect fear a less peaceful next year. The global political order established by the winning parties after the Second WW is rapidly falling apart and the West European nations are concerned about what will come next but also whether they will have a say in as power shifts further to the East.

The big challenge is between the US and China economically and between the US and Russia militarily.  Europe increasingly looks excluded from the debate.”

Methodology:

The Gallup International End of Year Survey (EoY) is an annual tradition initiated by and designed under the chairmanship of Dr. George Gallup in 1977. It is conducted every year since then. This year it was carried out by the Gallup International Association in partnership with WIN in 50 countries around the world.

Regions coverage:

  • EU Total: Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Spain, UK
  • EU West: Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK
  • EU East: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Hungary
  • Non-EU Europe: Albania, Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia, Switzerland, Ukraine
  • USA
  • India
  • Russia
  • Latin America: Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay
  • East Asia: Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
  • West Asia: Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Turkey
  • Middle East: Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon
  • Africa: Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa
  • Australia & New Zealand

Sample Size and Mode of Field Work:

A total of 48 745 persons were interviewed globally. In each country a representative sample of around 1000 men and women was interviewed either face to face (27 countries; n=28063), via telephone (7 countries; n=5922) or online (16 countries; n=14760). The field work was conducted during October- December 2018. The margin of error for the survey is between +3-5% at 95% confidence level.

About Gallup International

Gallup International Association (GIA) is the leading association in market research and polling and this year celebrates its 72nd anniversary.

For over 70 years Gallup International Members have demonstrated their expert ability to conduct multi-country surveys on a comparable basis and deliver the highest quality. Their Members are leading national institutes with a profound local knowledge of research methods and techniques, statistical sources, customs and culture differences of its own country and carefully selected by the Association Board. With only one Member agency per country, Members work together on a daily basis to share knowledge, new research techniques and tools, as well as to provide the most appropriate solutions to international research projects and service our clients to the best of our abilities. GIA has over 50 members and conducts research in over 100 countries.

 

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