Persistent Inflation in Ramadan Major Problem                                                         Back

Rising prices have always been a major problem for the people of Pakistan. Unfortunately, however, the problem only seems to aggravate further in Ramadan ever year. Gallup Pakistan has been conducting regular surveys in Ramadan for the past few years to evaluate the effects of inflation on the lifestyles and household expenditures of the general public.

Last Ramadan, i.e. in winter 2006, respondents were questioned about the change in their household expenditures and the prices of various items. A large majority of those questioned (77%) affirmed that prices of various goods increase in Ramadan and 83% of the respondents stated that their household expenditures increase consequently. Rising prices seem to be a persistent phenomenon as 62% of the people also felt that the prices had increased even more relative to past Ramadans and only 13% were of the opinion that prices had been kept under some degree of control.

Respondents were then asked about specific food items and the majority agreed that there had been an increase in the prices of all the food items mentioned. 79% of the people felt that there had been an increase in the prices of fruits and vegetables, 50% felt there had been an increase in the prices of sugar, tea and flour, 68% affirmed an increase in the price of dates and 57% claimed that the prices of oil/ghee had risen.

As stated, the trend is a very persistent one. A diverse sample of people were posed similar questions in Ramadan in 2005 when 82% of the respondents felt that the prices of various items had increased and another 80% claimed their household expenditure increased in the Holy month. Only 12% of the people questioned in 2005 were of the opinion that prices had been kept under control.

The situation does indeed seem to have worsened over the years as when asked about specific food items in 2005, the percentage of people who claimed the prices had increased, although still in majority, was slightly lower than that in 2006. This indicates that the situation has worsened over the past few years. In 2005, 51% of the respondents stated that the prices of oil/ghee had risen, 44% felt that the price of tea had increased, 71% were of the view that the price of meat had increased while the percentage of people who felt that the prices of sugar and flour had increased stood at 58% and 54% respectively.

These surveys and polls were conducted by Gallup Pakistan, an affiliate of Gallup International, on a sample of over 1100 respondents in urban areas of all four provinces of Pakistan. This sample was statistically selected across all ages, income groups and educational levels. The error margin for a sample of this kind is estimated to be +/- 5% at a 95% confidence level..

Improvements in the Job Market?                                                                             Back

A lot of people are now seeking paid employment instead of initiating personal business ventures. Gallup Pakistan conducted a survey on employment and job security in 2005 to assess the risks and issues that paid employees have to face, the most important one obviously being unemployment.

Back in 2005, 44% of the respondents were in a full-time paid employment and 9% were in a part-time paid employment. Amongst those questioned, 69% considered their employment to be safe, 10% were concerned about the possibility of losing their current job while 11% were unsure. 33% felt they will be able to find a new job fairly quickly, 43% worried that it might take a long time, 6% claimed that they would not even look for another job while 33% said that they are unsure.

When questioned about their past experiences, 32% admitted that they had had to face unemployment in the past while the remaining had never been unemployed. Amongst those who had been unemployed, 19% had been unemployed for less than 3 months, 18% had been unemployed for 4-6 months 25% had been unemployed for 6-12 months and 26% had been unemployed for over a year.

The risk of losing one’s job brings with it the fear of being unable to maintain one’s current living standards. When asked about any such fears, 24% of the people admitted that they were concerned about being able to maintain their present standard of living, 26% were unsure and 49% were confident of their abilities to maintain their current lifestyle. On the other hand, only 38% felt that they possessed the resources that could help them improve their future income while the others felt that they did not have any such resources.

When the question of job satisfaction was raised, 58% of the respondents claimed that they were satisfied. While 28% of the respondents felt very satisfied, 14 % were not at all satisfied with their job.

When similar questions were asked in the year 2006, 29% stated that they were in full-time job and 10% said that they were in a part-time paid employment. While these percentages are fairly similar to those calculated in the year 2005, there does seem to be a slight increase in job insecurity as 21% of the people questioned felt concerned about losing their job. 68% of the people considered their job secure while 11% said that they did not know.

Neither can one cite any particular improvement in the overall job market. Relative to 2005, only 26% of those questioned in 2006 were confident about finding a new job fairly quickly if they became unemployed, 52% worried that it would take a long time and 14% were unsure.

These surveys and polls were conducted by Gallup Pakistan, an affiliate of Gallup International, on a sample of over 1100 respondents in urban areas of all four provinces of Pakistan. This sample was statistically selected across all ages, income groups and educational levels. The error margin for a sample of this kind is estimated to be +/- 5% at a 95% confidence level.

Declining Confidence in the Country’s Economic State                                            Back

Amongst the several issues that Gallup Pakistan covers in its weekly polls is the important question of the people’s perceptions and concerns about the country’s economic position. They are an important indicator of the consequences of various economic changes and policies and the respondents are, therefore, regularly asked to share their opinions on the topic.

Towards the end of the year 2005, respondents were asked about their expectations of the economic conditions that the next generation will have to face. While 22% of the respondents felt that there will be no change, 44% thought that there would some improvement and 13% thought there would be considerable economic prosperity in the futue. On the other hand, 16% were of the opinion that there would be some decline and only 1% felt that the economic conditions would deteriorate considerably. The public, however, seems to have adopted a more cautious and pessimistic attitude since then. When the same question was repeated in 2006, the number of those who thought that the next generation would enjoy much more favorable economic conditions had dropped to 9% and only 18% of the respondents felt that there would be some economic prosperity. Similarly, 21% of the people thought there would be a slight decrease in economic prosperity and a surprising 13% felt the economic conditions would worsen considerably. 24%, however, believed that there would be no change.

In a similar vein, when questioned towards the end of 2005, 48% of the people hoped to see improvements in the next year while 18% were of the view that the economic conditions would take a turn for the worse. 22% of the respondents felt that there would be no change in the economic conditions over the next twelve months and 13% were unsure. The picture was much more discouraging in 2006 when the same question was asked again. In 2006, only 31% of the people thought that the next year would bring improvements while the percentage of people who thought the conditions would worsen over the next twelve months had increased to 34%. 18% were of the opinion that there would be no change.

These views are reflected in the data that Gallup collected regarding the people’s opinions about the expected rate of unemployment. When questioned in 2005, 35% of the people felt that unemployment rates would rise sharply over the next year, 30% predicted a slight increase and 19% felt that there would be no change. In fact, only 6% thought there would be a decrease in unemployment. When asked the same question again in 2006, the number of people who dreaded a sharp increase in the level of unemployment stood at 34%, 18 % felt that there would be a slight increase in unemployment, 22% predicted that there would be no change and 13% were of the view the rate of unemployment would fall over the next twelve months. While some would claim that there had been a positive change in the attitudes and expectations of the people, one can hardly call it significant.

In fact, 34% of those questioned in 2006 held the view that the country’s conditions had deteriorated relative to the past, 34% offered no opinion and 31% felt that compared to the past, there had been an improvement in the Pakistan’s economic conditions. Similarly, 28% claimed that their own economic standing had worsened relative to the past few years. 35%, however, felt that their economic condition had improved and 37% did not know. The same year, i.e. 2006, 29% of the people rated the country’s existing economic conditions as bad or very bad, 41% rated it as good or very good and 30% considered it as average.

The new year does not seem very promising either. Respondents were asked similar questions in January, 2007. When asked to compare their current income to the past one year, 43% felt there had been no change, 32% stated that there had been some improvement and only 10% said that there had been a significant improvement. 16%, on the other hand, claimed their income had worsened. 36% did not expect their income to change over the next year, 31% expected it to increase a little, 16% hoped to see a major improvement while 16% feared that it would decline.

One is forced to reflect on the reasons behind this decline in the people’s confidence in the country’s overall economic state. Some of the respondents would undoubtedly hold Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz’s government responsible. In a survey in 2006, 35% of the respondents thought that unemployment had increased under Prime Minister Aziz, 50% thought there had been no change whatsoever while 13% believed that employment levels had actually risen. 23% of the respondents also felt that Pakistan’s economic conditions had deteriorated under Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, 45% said there had been no change and 31% felt that there had been an improvement.

Others might wish to hold business leaders accountable. In 2006, 36% of our respondents felt that business leaders were dishonest, 36% thought that they had too much power and responsibility, 31% believed that they behaved unethically, 28% claimed that they were incompetent and 41% were of the view that they gave in to pressures from more powerful figures.

These surveys and polls were conducted by Gallup Pakistan, an affiliate of Gallup International, on a sample of over 1100 respondents in urban areas of all four provinces of Pakistan. This sample was statistically selected across all ages, income groups and educational levels. The error margin for such a sample is estimated to be +/- 5% at a 95% confidence level.