The Israel-Hezbollah Conflict                                                                                      Back

In an attempt to discover more about the general public’s opinions on international events, Gallup Pakistan has always ensured that its surveys and polls include questions relevant to recent global events. The Israel-Hezbollah war last year captured everyone’s attention at home and Gallup was able to make some interesting observations in this regard.

65% of the respondents believed that Israel had initiated the war, 9% were under the impression that the conflict had been started by Hezbollah while 27% said that they did not know. When asked about the side they favored, 57% of those questioned stated that they were on Hezbollah’s side, 11% supported Israel, 14% preferred to remain neutral and 18% refrained from giving a definite response.

When the question about the use of military power by Israel was put forward, 55% of the people felt that Israel had gone too far, 17% were of the opinion that it had used just the right amount of military power and 8% thought that Israel should have used more power while 20% were unsure. While the war was still going on, 21% of our respondents believed that it was very likely that the conflict will grow and eventually involve other countries, 28% considered such a situation to be quite likely and 23% thought that it was not very likely. 20% completely ruled out this possibility while 15% were doubtful.

Some people were of the opinion that apart from Hezbollah and Israel, other institutions/countries were also directly or indirectly involved in the war. The percentage of people who thought that Al-Qaeda or Hamas was involved stood at 7%, 5% were of the opinion that Islamic extremists were involved; another 5% named Iran and 3% believed that Iraq was involved. The proportion of people who suspected that Lebanon, Palestine and Syria were involved stood at 6%, 5% and 2% respectively. No country or organization, however, managed to outdo the US as 48% of the people were convinced of the States’ involvement in the conflict. In fact, 31% of the respondents strongly felt that the US should stop interfering in the issue. Neither were a lot of people happy with the US’ efforts at resolving the conflict. 21% were of the view that the States had actually sought to solve the problem. Comparatively, 33% believed that the UN had tried to resolve the clash and 24% were under the impression that the EU had tried to settle the conflict.

Several other interesting insights were collected through this survey. 45% of the respondents considered the solution of this problem to be vital to the establishment of peace in the region, only 5% of the people considered Hezbollah to be a terrorist organization and only 9% thought that Lebanon had no control over Hezbollah. A large majority, standing at 40%, also felt that Israel’s actions were only increasing the general support for Hezbollah. As far as a resolution to the problem is concerned, 46% were of the opinion that a UN peacekeeping force should be present in the region to create a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon and 41% supported the deployment of Pakistani peacekeeping troops in the region if any such request was made by the United Nations.

When questioned about the reasons behind Hezbollah’s success, 60% thought that it was due to Hezbollah’s faith in God. 11% held Lebanese support to be responsible for this victory while 10% indicated towards support from Iran. 7% felt that it was due to excessive training by Hezbollah while 8% thought that it was due to the superiority of its weapons.

Towards the end of 2006, the people were once again questioned about Hezbollah. They were asked about Hezbollah’s chances of overthrowing the Lebanese government. While 28% of the people believed that it could overtake the Lebanese government, 31% disagreed. 40% were unsure. On the other hand, 68% of the people were also convinced that the US, Israel and several European countries’ attempts at disarming Hezbollah will be unsuccessful, 24% felt that it was possible and 8% said that they did not know.

These surveys and polls were conducted by Gallup Pakistan, an affiliate of Gallup International, on a sample of over 1100 respondents in urban areas of all four provinces of Pakistan. This sample was statistically selected across all ages, income groups and educational levels. The error   for a sample of this kind is estimated to be +/- 5% at a 95% confidence level.

Go, North Korea, Go!                                                                                                 Back

In spite of the fact that North Korea’s nuclear program has always been a hotly debated topic, its decision to finally test nuclear bombs shocked the entire world. Accordingly, Gallup Pakistan requested its respondents to share their views and sentiments about the nuclear tests.

Most of the Pakistanis seemed to favor North Korea’s decision. In response to the question, ‘North Korea recently tested nuclear bombs. What do you think of this decision?’, 44% of the respondents replied that it was a good decision, 16% did not look upon it favorably while 40% did not offer a definite opinion.

When questioned about the repercussions of these tests and the consequences that North Korea might have had to face, 48% of the respondents felt confident that the United States will not attack North Korea, 14% admitted that there was such a possibility while 38% said that they did not know. Similarly, 49% of those questioned were of the opinion that the two major world powers and ex-allies of North Korea, China and Russia, will not support the US against North Korea. 16%, on the other hand, felt that China and Russia would side with the United States. 35% were unsure.

‘In your opinion, to what extent will the restrictions imposed on North Korea by the UN be effective?’. In response to this query, 11% of the people stated that these sanctions will be very effective, 29% believed that they would be somewhat effective, 28% felt that they would have very little effect and 26% were of the view that they would have no impact whatsoever. 6% of those questioned said that they did not know.

While it is clear that the majority of the Pakistani people support North Korea’s decision to test nuclear bombs, the reasons for doing so are not so obvious. Is it because they fail to understand the possible repercussions of such an action, is the acquiring of nuclear power considered something prestigious, or is it simply because they consider it to be North Korea’s way of standing up to the States? The last rationale seems most plausible as in spite of a government with a consistently pro-US stance, the people in Pakistan have always harbored resentment and dislike towards the United States.

These surveys and polls were conducted by Gallup Pakistan, an affiliate of Gallup International, on a sample of over 1100 respondents in urban areas of all four provinces of Pakistan. This sample was statistically selected across all ages, income groups and educational levels. The error   for a sample of this kind is estimated to be +/- 5% at a 95% confidence level.

Majority Favors Iran                                                                                                   Back

The alleged nuclear enrichment activities that are being carried out by Iran have disturbed the world at large. The issue has also been brought to the United Nations’ attention several times and yet, a solution in the near future does not seem likely. Over the past year and a half, when this issue gained particular momentum, Gallup Pakistan has ensured that it captures the opinions of the Pakistani people on the subject.

In February 2006, when restrictions were imposed on Iran, the respondents were asked if Iran should continue its activities.            In response, 51% of the people said that it should continue its nuclear enrichment, 17% said that it’s should cease doing so while 32% were doubtful. Similarly, 50% also said that no sanctions or restrictions should be imposed on Iran while 16% were in favor of sanctions. 34% said that they did not know. When questioned about the possibility of an attack on Iran by the United States, 29% believed that such an attack was possible, 30% considered it to be unlikely while 41% were not certain. Most of the people, i.e. 46%, also felt that Pakistan should side with Iran in case of an attack on Iran by the States or the United Nations, 10% thought that siding with the US/UN is a better option and 18% preferred remaining neutral.

A few weeks later, the Security Council gave Iran one month’s notice to halt and abolish all of its nuclear enrichment plans. When questioned about this ultimatum, 58% of the respondents felt that Iran would continue with its plans while 16% thought that Iran would cease nuclear enrichment. 38% of the people also correctly predicted that there will be no attack on Iran once the month is over while 26% had considered such a situation to be possible. 37% did not offer a definite response.

While most of the people (40%) felt that the West and Iran will not be able to reach a compromise after discussions as opposed to 25% who thought that discussions might be fruitful, the opinions of the people had not changed as far as supporting Iran in case of a war is concerned. The majority still favored Iran. In fact, 51% of those questioned strongly felt that all Muslim countries should favor Iran, 11% suggested that the Muslims countries should side with the US/UN in case of an armed conflict while 17% preferred to remain neutral.

Similar questions were repeated a few months later towards the end of the year 2006 and the figures gathered indicated a very persistent response. 41% were confident that the US will not attack Iran, 21% were willing to consider such a possibility while 37% said they did not know. 48% said that Pakistan should support Iran in case of a war, 12% stated that the US should be favored while 18% believed that Pakistan should not take sides.

Towards the end of 2006, most people were not in favor of any sanctions against Iran and deemed them to ineffective. 51% were against any restrictions as opposed to 18% who were in favor of them and 31% who were uncertain. Only 11% considered sanctions to be very effective, the percentage of people who considered them to be somewhat effective stood at 28%, another 28% viewed them as barely effective, 27% thought that they had no impact and 6% said that they did not know. 9% of the people felt that Iran should abolish its nuclear enrichment program altogether, 22% were of the opinion that it should so do temporarily and 48% felt that it should not cease its program at all.

In March 2007, however, surprisingly, 41% of the people felt that an attack on Iran was possible as compared to 24% who did not consider it likely. 19% of the people also considered it very likely that the attack will be conducted from the Pakistani border, 31% considered such a situation to be somewhat likely, 21% thought there was a slight possibility and 27% did not think it was at all possible. 56% of the respondents were of the view that if attacked, Iran would attack back, 20% thought that it would initiate talks and 22% believed that it would cease its nuclear enrichment activities. 23% felt that if Iran decides to retaliate, it will do so by attacking Israel in comparison to 37% who believed that Iran would attack some other country which supported the US and another 37% who thought that it would attack American warheads. 37% of those questioned also felt confident that Iran would win such a conflict, 18% believed that the US would win the war, 41% believed that no one will be successful and 4% expressed their doubts.

While more people acknowledged the possibility of an attack on Iran in 2007, the majority still opted to side with Iran. 60% of the respondents said that the Muslim nations should support Iran in case of a conflict, 17% thought that they should remain neutral and 6% believed that favoring the US is a better option. Similarly, 65% of the people thought that Pakistan should side with Iran, 18% opted for neutrality and only 2% said that Pakistan should favor the States.

There is no question about the public’s sentiments being in favor of Iran, in spite of the uncertain relations between the two countries in the past. The States’ apparent defeat in the conflict in Iraq seems to be the major reason for the people anticipating another defeat at the hands of Iran and their waning conviction of the US’ military might. One interesting observation highlighted by the surveys is the majority’s lack of faith in the effectiveness of the United Nations and the use of sanction as an effective measure of preventing countries from carrying out undesirable and/or possibly harmful activities.

These surveys and polls were conducted by Gallup Pakistan, an affiliate of Gallup International, on a sample of over 1100 respondents in urban areas of all four provinces of Pakistan. This sample was statistically selected across all ages, income groups and educational levels. The error   for a sample of this kind is estimated to be +/- 5% at a 95% confidence level.

Bad, bad, America!                                                                                                     Back

Things have been very different at home ever since the September 11 attacks. While the Pakistani government has opted to support the United States since, the people seem to feel very different even today. These observations were highlighted by the various surveys that have been conducted by Gallup Pakistan over the past few years.

An extensive survey was carried out during President Bush’s visit to Pakistan last year. In 2006, 66% of the people questioned stated that they disliked President Bush as compared to 11% who claimed to like him. 23% did not give a definite answer. 29% of the people also felt that this visit would not be beneficial for Pakistan, 21% thought that it would be fruitful and 48% were of the view that it would have no significant impact on the country.

Back then, a lot of people also felt that the US pressurized the state into undertaking measures that it normally would not have carried out. When questioned about the initiation of diplomatic relations between Pakistan and Israel, 19% considered it to be Pakistan’s own decision and 48% believed that it had happened because of US pressure. Similarly, 50% of the people strongly felt that Pakistan would not have established relations with Israel had there been no pressure from the States. 47% of those questioned were not happy with Pakistan’s decision as opposed to 15% who were content with it and 38% who said that they did not know.

Neither were the people happy with the establishment of close ties between India and the US and they held the US responsible for this situation. When asked about this issue in 2006, 30% of the people stated that the close relations between India and the States would deteriorate Pakistan-US relations, 47% said that there would be no difference and 21% thought that this would improve Pakistan-US relations.

Several questions pertaining to the September 11 attacks were also put forward to the respondents in 2006. 37% of the respondents were of the view that these attacks had been orchestrated by US groups. Only 14% viewed the United Stated as a victim in these attacks while 54% considered the US to be the transgressor. A vast majority, standing at 77%, were convinced that these attacks had brought problems for the Muslims worldwide, 6% said that they did not know and 17% thought that they had been beneficial for the Muslims. Only 6% of the Pakistani people thought of the US government and the US people as good.

Perhaps most of the people feel this resentment towards the United States because they believe that it interferes too much in matters which should be handled by the government itself. In 2006, after the revelation of handing over of Al-Qaeda members to the States by Pakistan in President Musharraf’s book, 38% of the people expressed their disapproval of the action. 38% were not sure and 23% thought that the Pakistan had done the right thing.

This attitude had not changed much in 2007. In early 2007, 37% of the Pakistani’s indicated their suspicions that the US was involved in the increased number of suicide bombings all over the country. 64% also asserted that they did not think that the US was at all interested in establishing peace in South Asia. Comparatively, 14% thought that it very serious about doing so and 21% felt that it was somewhat interested in doing so.

In April 2007, 44% of the respondents questioned said that Pakistan should no longer support the US in the war against terrorism as compared to 26% who felt that the country should continue its support. 30% said that they did not know. 25% of those questioned also believed that Pakistan-US relations had deteriorated over the past few years, 39% thought that these relations had improved and 36% stated that they did not know.

These surveys and polls were conducted by Gallup Pakistan, an affiliate of Gallup International, on a sample of over 1100 respondents in urban areas of all four provinces of Pakistan. This sample was statistically selected across all ages, income groups and educational levels. The error   for a sample of this kind is estimated to be +/- 5% at a 95% confidence level.

Pakistan and India: Better Relations?                                                                        Back

India and Pakistan have always had very complex relations. In recent years, a lot has been said about leaving behind enmities and forging a new way towards peace and cooperation. Gallup Pakistan has tried to monitor the people’s opinion on these developments.

In the beginning of the year 2006, the people were questioned about the changes in Pakistan-India relations over the past few years. In reply, 49% of the people asserted that these relations had improved, 6% felt that they had worsened, 30% were of the view that there had been no change and 15 % said that they did not know. Given the improved relations between the countries, 22% of the people felt that it would now be easy to resolve the Kashmir issue, 30% believed that it would still be very difficult and 47% said that there had been no change as far as the Kashmir issue was concerned.

These attitudes remained embedded in the people’s minds even when the two countries summoned their ambassadors back later that same year.  44% also felt confident that there is no chance of a war between the two countries in spite of this unfortunate event, 38% believed that there was some possibility and only 16% considered such a situation to be likely.

A lot of people were also in favor of establishment of other, new links between the two countries in 2006. In fact, 73% of them favored the starting of a bus service between Muzaffarabad and Srinagar. 52% were of the opinion that such a bus service with benefit both countries, 13% thought that it would be more beneficial for India and 14% believed that it would be more advantageous for Pakistan.

While relations between the two countries had improved, they still stood at a precarious and uncertain point. Only 8% of the people questioned in 2006 claimed that they liked the Indian people and 10% stated that they liked the Indian government. The situation also seemed very flaky during President Bush’s visit to India and Pakistan and the establishment of very close relations between India and the United States. 35% thought that this visit would not be beneficial for Pakistan and 30% were of the opinion that the close ties between India and the US would deteriorate Pakistan-India relations.

Extensive surveys were conducted again in 2007 and things seemed to have taken a positive turn. 70% of the people supported the establishment of trade links with India as compared to only 29% who were against it. Similarly, 82% of the people thought that the two countries should cooperate regarding sports, 65% favored cooperation in education, 58% felt that they should work together as far as films or media were concerned and 68% were in favor of collaboration in tourism. 56% were of the view that the two countries should work together in agriculture and 60% supported cooperation in the fields of science and technology.

In 2007, 41% of the people were of the opinion that relations between the two countries had taken a positive turn over the past few years, 7% felt that they had deteriorated and 51% believed that there had been no change. 46% considered an armed conflict between the two to be highly unlikely, 45% thought that there was a very slight chance and only 8% considered it to be very likely. 48% attributed this improvement in relations to factors such as the bus service between the two countries.

The uncertainty, however, remained there. 78% of those questioned in 2007 strongly felt that the Kashmir issue must be resolved before peace can be established in the region. 41% also believed that they would not see a resolution to the dispute in their lifetime. 40% of the people considered India to be an enemy and 40% labeled it as an opponent. Only 17% considered India to be Pakistan’s friend.

The situation worsened after the bombings on the Samjhota Express, the bus service which runs from Lahore to India. 35% of the people held India responsible for this incident and 20% blamed it on the railway administration. 21% also indicated the involvement of foreign agencies. 20% of them thought that the Indian government’s attitude towards the victims and passengers had been bad, 11% said that it had been very bad and 37% rated it as average. 16% considered the Indian government’s attitude as good and only 3% felt that it was very good. 39% also believed that India’s government was not at all resolute about investigating the incident, 12% thought that it was very serious and 46% were of the view that it was somewhat serious. 30% of those questioned felt that this incident would deteriorate the relations between the two countries, 54% were of the opinion that there would be no change and 14% thought that there would be an improvement.

One cannot deny the positive change that has occurred in the region, thanks to the better relations that the two countries now enjoy and the establishment of economic and cultural links between them. At the same time, however, it is clear that this improvement is very frail and even a seemingly insignificant event can have far-reaching implications. The two countries will have to strive much harder if they wish to protect this favorable change and continue it in the years to come.

These surveys and polls were conducted by Gallup Pakistan, an affiliate of Gallup International, on a sample of over 1100 respondents in urban areas of all four provinces of Pakistan. This sample was statistically selected across all ages, income groups and educational levels. The error   for a sample of this kind is estimated to be +/- 5% at a 95% confidence level.

The Return of the Taliban?                                                                                         Back

Given the current situation in Waziristan, one often comes across news about the alleged activities of the Al-Qaeda as well as the presence of Al-Qaeda members in Pakistan. Gallup Pakistan has tried to give maximum possible coverage to the activities of the Al-Qaeda along with the Afghan government in general in its weekly surveys and polls.

In 2005, respondents were asked if they thought Al-Qaeda was still active. In response, 44% of the people thought that it was still functioning, 40% believed that it had ended and 16% said they were not sure. 28% also believed that members of the Taliban were still in hiding in the tribal areas of Pakistan, 13% felt that this was not so while 58% were doubtful.

The same questions were repeated in 2006. 63% believed that Al-Qaeda was functional and 30% thought that it had ended. Also, 26% agreed with the claim that members of the Taliban were still present in Pakistan, 25% believed that this was not so and 47% expressed their uncertainty.

In the summer of 2006, the people were also questioned about Osama bin Laden’s supposed death. 64% of the respondents believed that he was still alive, 25% considered him to be dead and 9% said that they did not know. 17% of those questioned also believed that he was hiding in the tribal areas of Pakistan, 43% were against this notion and another 40% said that they had no idea. 40% of the people also believed that the statements attributed to Osama bin Laden which had been observed on the internet were in fact Osama’s own words. 45% considered these statements to be false while 15% were uncertain.

A comprehensive survey regarding the Afghan government and Taliban was also conducted in 2006.  20% of the people were of the view that Pak-Afghan relations had improved over the past few years, 25% asserted that they has worsened, 33% felt that there had been no change and the remaining did not offer a definite opinion. 46% were of the view that the Afghan government’s allegations against Pakistan for helping the Taliban were incorrect, 19% considered them correct and 35% were unsure. 29% believed that the US forces will soon leave Afghanistan, 16% said that they would not do so anytime soon and 31% said that they could not say.

22% believed that the chances of the Taliban regaining control over Afghanistan were very high, 50% felt that it was unlikely and 21% were of the opinion that it was not possible. 40% of the Pakistanis were of the view that the Pakistani government should help the Taliban, 33% said that it should remain neutral, 9% stated that it should oppose them and 17% were unsure. Similarly, 13% of those questioned viewed the previous Pakistani government’s relations with the Taliban to be very good, 28% rated them as good, 35% considered them as average, 14% viewed them as bad and 4% thought of them as very bad. 11% considered the Taliban’s overall performance to be very good, 30% considered it to be good, 34% stated that it as average, 13% viewed it as bad and 4% thought it was very bad.

At the same time, 71% blamed the United States for the unrest in South Asian countries, including Afghanistan and Iran. 14% held Israel responsible and 7% indicated towards the European countries.

One could safely say that the country is deeply divided as far as the Taliban are concerned. A more thorough research, however, indicates that the majority still prefers to side with Al-Qaeda. . In 2006, following the death of Al-Qaeda leader Abu Musab Zarqavi, 33% of the people stated that they had felt very distressed when they first heard about his death, 39% claimed that they were somewhat distressed, 14% stated that they were not that upset and 10% asserted that they did not feel any remorse. This is a very surprising observation especially if one considers the aftermath of the September 11 attacks and the negative publicity generated against Al-Qaeda by the international media.

These surveys and polls were conducted by Gallup Pakistan, an affiliate of Gallup International, on a sample of over 1100 respondents in urban areas of all four provinces of Pakistan. This sample was statistically selected across all ages, income groups and educational levels. The error   for a sample of this kind is estimated to be +/- 5% at a 95% confidence level.