Failing Government?                                                                                                    Back

The institutions of any country are crucial to its survival and progress and the faith that people place in these institutions is an indicator of their performance, both current and expected. When conducting surveys about the state and domestic politics, Gallup Pakistan ensures the inclusion of questions related to the overall performance of the government.

In a survey conducted in 2007, people were asked about the degree of trust that they placed in various institutions. In response, 20% of the people said that they had a lot of trust in the National Assembly, 19% believed in NGO’s, 16% had faith in the media and 12% really trusted the armed forces. Comparatively, 11% claimed that they had faith in the ulema, 10% laid their confidence in civil courts, 8% trusted the police and only 5% stated that they really trusted the political parties. When questioned about ways in which public and private institutions could regain the public’s trust and confidence, 30% stressed on the need for greater transparency while 32% said that there is a dire need for these institutions to keep fraudulent behavior in check and that this can be done through more strict punishments. 9% said that there should be new organizational designs, 14% believed that there should be open dialogue and communication between these institutions and the people and 6% stated that the institutions needed to reconnect with all stakeholders. 9%, on the other hand, said that they did not know.

In response to another query in 2007, 45% of the people said that they preferred to seek help from civil courts when facing a problem, 25% stated they turned towards religious leaders, 12% sought help from those enforcing the Shariah and 18% said that they did not know. At the same time, however, the people’s lack of confidence in the judiciary is highlighted by the fact that 51% of the people believed that the enforcement of Shariah in the country was being demanded because the civil courts had failed to uphold their responsibilities. 28% disagreed with this claim and 21% were not sure.

Given the upcoming elections, the respondents were asked in more detail about both political parties and political leaders towards the end of 2006. When asked about political leaders, 62% of the respondents described them as dishonest, 51% thought that they wielded too much power and responsibility, 49% believed that they were unethical and 31% were of the opinion that they were too sensitive when it came to public opinion. 45% of the people rated them as incompetent and 46% were of the view that they tend to respond to pressure from people more powerful than themselves. When asked about the factors that could give one political priority superiority over another, 59% mentioned the policies that political parties advocate, 35% considered the party’s plans about the distribution of finances allocated for development projects to be very important and 36% considered the help that they could get with regard to their personal problems as very significant.

More specifically, in 2006, the people were questioned about education and health facilities in the country. When asked about the problems that they had had to face at local public schools in the past one year, 36% mentioned about the lack of an adequate number of textbooks available for students, 34% indicated towards poor teaching standards, 32% said that the classrooms were overcrowded, 29% mentioned the frequent absence of teachers, 32% stated that the facilities available were very poor and 24% replied that they were required to make illegal payments to the administration. At the same time, it is important to note that 83% of the respondents claimed that they had not had any experience with a public school.

Similarly, when inquired about the problems that the people had experienced at public hospitals in the past twelve months, 47% stated that they had been treated disrespectfully by the staff, 51% mentioned that no medicines were available at these facilities, 49% said that there was a very long waiting line and 36% indicated towards the frequent absence of doctors. 41% also asserted that the hospitals were not clean and 31% said that they were required to make illegal payments. 82%, however, said that they had no experience with public hospitals.

In a survey conducted in 2005, the people were asked to name the institutions that they viewed as very corrupt. 51% mentioned the police, 25% named the judiciary, 32% indicated towards political system, 31% identified the bureaucracy and 16% pointed towards the forces. In a question specific to the judiciary, only 13% of the people felt that the judiciary was doing a very good job of providing justice, 45% believed that it was doing so to some extent and 41% said that it had failed completely.

It is pretty obvious from the data given above that most of the people do not have any confidence in the central institutions of the state such as the judiciary, the armed forces and even the general political system. The current establishment is surrounded with problems and has failed to satisfy the masses. While people have little or no faith in these institutions, most of them still seem to favor them over the religious leaders or those demanding the enforcement of the Shariah.

However, this observation should not be misunderstood. Leave alone the fundamental institutions of the state, the majority of the people strongly feel that the government has failed to provide them even the basic facilities of health and education. They have no confidence in public institutions and more and more of them seem to be turning away from them altogether.

These surveys and polls were conducted by Gallup Pakistan, an affiliate of Gallup International, on a sample of over 1100 respondents in urban areas of all four provinces of Pakistan. This sample was statistically selected across all ages, income groups and educational levels. The error   for a sample of this kind is estimated to be +/- 5% at a 95% confidence level.

The Chief Justice Crisis                                                                                                Back

The crisis which occurred over the Chief Justice issue shook the entire country. While the subject was still under heavy discussions and debates, Gallup Pakistan conducted surveys and polls to gauge the opinions of the masses.

The significance of the matter can be judged from the fact 82% of the people had heard about this issue and 58% had read about it.70% of Gallup’s respondents strongly believed that the Chief Justice issue had defamed the government and 58% were of the opinion that the courts had been dishonored by this action. 19% considered this action as necessary for justice and 23% stated that did not know.

Only 17% were of the view that the President had made the correct decision in this regard. In contrast, 56% considered this decision to be incorrect and 27% said that they did not know. These views were reflected in another question put forward in March 2007, in reply to which, 8% rated the President’s decision as very good, 20% considered it as good, 30% viewed it as average, 26% thought it was very bad and 15% believed that it was very bad.

Similarly, 55% of the people believed that the allegations that had been leveled against the Chief Justice were wrong while only 16% viewed them as correct. 29%, however, said that they did not know.  53% of the respondents also described the President’s decision as a misuse of power. Comparatively, 20% disagreed with this claim while 29% did not offer a definite response. On the other hand, when asked about the Chief Justice’s performance as judge, 38% described it as good, 41% said that it was average, 14% believed that it was bad and 7% said that they were uncertain.

The respondents were also questioned about the protests that were held by the opposition and the lawyers. 49% of those questioned felt that the legal community and the opposition was doing the right thing by conducting strikes and rallies while 25% viewed these protests as wrong. 26% did not offer an opinion. 8% of the people viewed the opposition parties’ performance in this regard as very good, 26% labeled it as very good, 40% described it as average, 15% said that it was bad and 9% asserted that it was very bad.  48% also supported the lawyers’ and judges’ decision to resign. 28% were not in favor of their resignation and once again, 25% of those questioned said that they did not know. While 27% of the respondents were confident about the government ability to control these protests, 45% were not so sure. 28% did not offer a definite response.

In the survey, 32% of the people predicted that the Chief Justice would win in this clash, 38% were of the opinion that the government would be successful and 30% said that they did not know. 57% also believed that if the government wins, it will be very disgraceful for the courts as compared to 13% of the respondents who did not think so. When questioned about the likely consequences of this event, 59% strongly felt that it would weaken the judiciary, 15% thought that it would become stronger and 24% predicted that there would be no change in the position and power of the judiciary.

These surveys and polls were conducted by Gallup Pakistan, an affiliate of Gallup International, on a sample of over 1100 respondents in urban areas of all four provinces of Pakistan. This sample was statistically selected across all ages, income groups and educational levels. The error   for a sample of this kind is estimated to be +/- 5% at a 95% confidence level.

Increasing Terrorism                                                                                                    Back

The law and order situation in the country has always been a subject of particular interest for the public for it affects the people’s lives directly. Gallup Pakistan, therefore, always tries to include questions pertaining to law and order in its regular surveys and polls.

In February 2007, respondents were questioned about the rate of terrorism in the country. The majority of the people, standing at 60%, were of the view that terrorism had increased in the country in the past few years, 10% said that it had decreased and 29% were of the opinion that there had been no change. When questioned about the efforts that the government had directed towards controlling this terrorism, 7% said that the government had been very successful, 33% considered the government to be somewhat triumphant, 59% believed that the government had not been successful at all and 1% said that they did not know. 14% of those questioned also believed that the law and order situation in the country had improved over the past few years, 43% asserted that it had deteriorated and 42% said that there had been no change.

These questions were also asked in 2006. In 2006, 71% of the respondents stated that the rate of terrorism had increased in country, 8% believed that it had declined and 20% were unsure. Also, 10% thought that the law and order situation in the country had improved, 56% believed that it had worsened, 26% said that there had been no change and 8% said that they did not know. When asked specifically about the month of Moharram, which always brings violence and bloodshed with it, 57% of the people said that the law and order situation had been better in the last Moharram as compared to the previous years. On the other hand, 12% felt that it had worsened, 29% stated that there had been no change and 2% were uncertain.

Comparatively, in 2005, 58% of the people were of the view that the rate of terrorism had increased in the country. 18% disagreed with this view and said that terrorism had decreased and 24% said that there had been no change.

The respondents are also questioned after significant terrorist attacks in the country. This helps Gallup in not only assessing the current situation more accurately but also in capturing the changes in the attitudes of the people.

For instance, the people were surveyed after the suicide bombing at an Eid Millad-Un-Nabi gathering at Karachi in early 2006. 91% of the people were aware of this incident as compared o only 5% who had not heard or read about it. 19% of the respondents held US agencies responsible for this incident, 7% blamed Israel, 35% believed that other foreign agencies were responsible and 12% blamed India. Another 12% held religious groups liable while 2% believed that Al-Qaeda was in involved in this incident. 10%, however, said that they did not know. 52% of the people also believed that the groups/organizations responsible for these attacks were the ones who had carried out similar acts of terrorism in the city in the past as well. 20%, on the other hand, contradicted this notion.

Another important recent incident was the bomb blasts that occurred in the capital at Bari Imam in 2006. As far as this event is concerned, 41% of the people held foreign agencies responsible, 11% blamed the government itself and 20% believed that the religious groups were somehow involved. 28% said that they did not know.

These figures are a clear indicator of the lack of confidence that the general public has in the current government’s ability to control terrorist activities in the country. The people are so shaken that some of them have even contemplated the possibility of the government being involved in these acts itself. Not only is the current situation deplorable but sadly, there seems to have been no improvement whatsoever in the past few years. It is no wonder that most people fear for their safety.

These surveys and polls were conducted by Gallup Pakistan, an affiliate of Gallup International, on a sample of over 1100 respondents in urban areas of all four provinces of Pakistan. This sample was statistically selected across all ages, income groups and educational levels. The error   for a sample of this kind is estimated to be +/- 5% at a 95% confidence level.

Public Divided on Women’s Protection Bill                                                                 Back

A lot has been said and done about women’s rights in the country lately. Some of the people claim to be struggling for equal rights in this male dominated culture while others believe that women have already crossed the limits set down for them by their religion. Gallup Pakistan has carried out several surveys on this subject in the past few years. The following summarizes the data collected through surveys conducted on the Women’s Protection Bill and the Hudood Ordinance.

A lot people of seem to think that men and women enjoy equal rights in Pakistan. In a survey conducted in 2005, the respondents were given a list of sectors and were asked if they thought that men and women enjoyed equal rights in these fields in their localities. 45% believed that they had equal access to education, 32% thought that they enjoyed comparable employment opportunities and 44% said that similar health facilities were available to members of both sexes. 33% and 31% of the people were of the view that women and men enjoyed the same position when seeking justice and political participation respectively. 78% of the people were of the view that women’s rights was included in the current government’s priorities, 13% thought that this was not so and 9% said that had no idea.

In early 2006, the respondents were questioned about the Hudood Ordinance. It seems that the people were deeply divided on the issue. 31% claimed to support the Ordinance. Likewise, the percentage of people who opposed it also stood at 31% while 38% of the people said that they did not know. Similarly, 29% of the respondents were in favor of amending the Ordinance as compared to 27% who considered any amendment to be wrong. 44%, however, did not offer a definite response.

In a survey conducted later that same year, 40% of the people agreed with the claim that men and women enjoyed equal rights in the country. 43% thought that this was not the case and 17% stated that they were not sure. When questioned about the adoption of the Women’s Protection Bill by the government, 43% of the people said that it was a good decision, 36% viewed it as bad and 21% were unsure. In response to a similar question, 41% of the respondents stated that they supported the Bill, 37% opposed it and 22% expressed their uncertainty over the matter. When faced with the question, ‘Some people believe that this Bill will increase obscenity in the society while others believe that it will protect women’s rights. What is your view point?’, 39% of the people asserted that it would increase obscenity and shamelessness in the society.  The percentage of people who believed that it would protect women’s rights also stood at 39% and 22% said that they did not know.

When asked about the likely reaction of the MMA, the key opposition party to the Women’s Protection Bill, 58% of the respondents predicted that the government will not be able to reach a compromise with MMA. 35% thought that there was room for such a possibility and 7% were unsure. Similarly, only 14% felt that there was a strong possibility of MMA accepting the Bill, 35% were of the view that it was somewhat likely, 28% thought that it was not all possible and 23% did not offer a definite opinion.

There is no denying that the public is divided on the issue; some people have welcomed this change while others are very apprehensive about it. It will be quite some time before one can assess that actual affects and influences of this Bill on the society at large.

These surveys and polls were conducted by Gallup Pakistan, an affiliate of Gallup International, on a sample of over 1100 respondents in urban areas of all four provinces of Pakistan. This sample was statistically selected across all ages, income groups and educational levels. The error   for a sample of this kind is estimated to be +/- 5% at a 95% confidence level.

Slow Decline in President’s Popularity                                                                       Back

Gallup Pakistan has carried out extensive surveys on the subject of the state and domestic politics. Perhaps the most important political issue in Pakistan is that of the involvement of the army in the politics and even more specifically, General Musharraf’s Presidency.

Polls were carried out in 2005 to assess President Musharraf’s popularity amongst the masses. In 2005, 17% of the people described the President’s overall performance as very good, 32% considered it to be good, 35% viewed it as average, 7% thought that it was bad and 8% described it as very bad. 3% of the people did not offer a definite response.

Similar questions, when put forward to the respondents in early 2006, indicated that the President’s popularity had declined a little. 11% of the people labeled his overall performance as very good, 29% thought of it as very good and 37% described it as average. At the other end of the spectrum, 11% considered the President’s performance to be bad and another 7% viewed it as very bad. 5% said that they did now know. The trend seems to be a consistent one as later that same year, 10% of the people said that President Musharraf’s performance was very good, 27% claimed it to be good, 31% asserted that it was average, 15% were of the opinion that it was bad and 16% considered it to be very bad.

In similar surveys conducted in 2006, 34% of the respondents claimed that were strongly in favor of the army steering clear of politics in the country. Another 46% favored this position somewhat while only 17% were not at all in favor of the separation between politics and the armed forces. At the same time, however, 45% were confident that the army would maintain its influence on the government after the upcoming elections, 27% believed that the army would lose its influence and 28% said that they were unsure. The majority of the people, standing at 48%, also wanted the President to relinquish his post after the upcoming elections in contrast to 31% who wanted him to keep his post. 19%, however, stated that they were indifferent.

There was no significant change in 2007, when in response to the same question, 44% of the respondents suggested that the President should resign from his post after the elections. 26% wanted him to remain as President and 29% said that it did not make any difference to them. In 2007, only 7% of the people described the President’s performance as very good, 22% viewed it as good, 37% considered it to be average, 19% were of the opinion that it was bad and 15% rated it as very bad. Also, 18% of the respondents said that they were satisfied with the President’s handling of his responsibilities, 22% were somewhat satisfied and another 22% described it as average. On the other hand, 6% of the people asserted that they were somewhat unsatisfied and 27% stated that they were very disappointed. When questioned about President Musharraf’s personality, 8% of the people said that he was a very good person, 27% considered him to be good and 34% described him as average. Comparatively, 18% thought of him as bad and 11% believed that he was a very bad person. 2%, however, said that they did not know.

In 2007, when asked to describe the changes that had occurred under President Musharraf, 29% of the respondents said that the political situation had improved, 21% stated that the performance of police had become better and 65% were of the view that the United States’ interference had increased. 57% also believed that the central government pressurized the courts more and 45% were of the opinion that the army had lost its respect. However, only 32% of the people supported the opposition’s position of boycotting the elections as long as President Musharraf was in power. 40% believed that they should take part in the next elections regardless and 28% said that they did not know.

The respondents were also inquired in detail about the possibility of the President keeping the post of Chief of Army Staff in early 2007.  In response, 41% of the people claimed that they would support General Musharraf if he stood up for the upcoming elections, even if he kept the post of Army Chief. 30% said that they would oppose him while 18% preferred to remain neutral. Similarly, 43% stated that they would support him if he relinquished the post of Army Chief as compared to 27% who said that they would oppose him and 18% who stated that they would remain neutral. This data, however, contradicts the figures generated in response to another question asked in the same survey. In reply to that particular question, only 15% of the respondents said that they would support President Musharraf if he stood up for the post of President in the upcoming elections.

While the responses cited above indicate a slight decline in President Musharraf’s popularity, they do not say much about the possibility of him retaining his position as President. While most of the people are not happy about the army’s involvement in politics, it seems like they are still unsure about Musharraf’s Presidency. Such a precarious situation could both benefit and hinder the President’s plans of keeping his current post.

These surveys and polls were conducted by Gallup Pakistan, an affiliate of Gallup International, on a sample of over 1100 respondents in urban areas of all four provinces of Pakistan. This sample was statistically selected across all ages, income groups and educational levels. The error   for a sample of this kind is estimated to be +/- 5% at a 95% confidence level.

Elections 2007                                                                                                             Back

The upcoming elections are a crucial turning point for the country. Considering that will they have far reaching impact on the future, it is only natural that they have become the primary focus of political parties and the public alike. Gallup Pakistan has been trying to capture the opinions of the people on the subject over the past year by including relevant questions in its weekly polls.

In a survey conducted in early 2006, the people were asked about the possibility of the current government holding the next elections on time. 28% of those questioned were of the view that it was highly likely, 52% considered it to be somewhat possible and 17% felt that it was not all likely. 3% said that they did not know. 64% were of the opinion that Benazir Bhutto should return to the country prior to the elections as compared to 35% who were against her return. Similarly, 62% wanted Nawaz Sharif to return to Pakistan before the upcoming elections while 37% opposed his return. 48% believed that Benazir Bhutto should be able to participate in the next elections. The proportion of people who wanted Nawaz Sharif to take part in the elections also stood at 48%.

PPP seems to have been the most popular party in early 2006 as 19% of the people said that they would vote for it. PML-Q was also in close competition as 18% of the people supported it. On the other hand, 14% favored PML-N, 7% sided with MMA, 9% supported MQM and 3% said that they would vote for ANP. 20%, however, were undecided.  Similarly, President Musharraf was the most popular candidate for the post of Prime Minister as 34% of the people claimed that they would support him if he stood for the post. 24% favored Shaukat Aziz, 24% supported Nawaz Sharif, 23% sided with Benazir Bhutto and 13% preferred Fazal-ur-Rehman. Imran Khan, Qazi H. Ahmed and Altaf Hussain managed to capture 16%, 10%, and 14% of the votes respectively. (The respondents were asked to name all the candidates they were likely to support for the Prime Minister’s post.)  45% of the people were also of the opinion that the army would maintain its influence on the government after the next elections, 27% believed that it would lose its weight and 28% were unsure.

A similar survey was conducted in late 2006. 62% of the people questioned in that survey believed that the current government will be able to complete its tenure, 32% thought that it would dissolve earlier and 6% expressed their uncertainly. 34% were of the opinion that all the opposition parties should work together against the present government, 32% were against their coalition and 34% said that they did not know. The popularity of Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto appears to have declined by late 2006. 55% of the respondents believed that Benazir Bhutto should return to Pakistan prior to the elections, 43% were against her return and 2% were unsure. Similarly, 54% supported Nawaz Sharif’s return to the country before the elections, 45% opposed his return and 1% said that they were not sure. 39% of the people also advocated that that Benazir and Nawaz should reach a compromise and work together, 30% were against their working together and 31% said that they did not know.

PPP had lost its position to PML-Q by late 2006 when 22% of the people claimed that they would vote for PML-Q as compared to 21% who supported PPP. PML-N was also in close competition with 20% of the votes, 12% favored MMA and 10% sided with MQM. 13% were undecided. President Musharraf, however, retained his popularity and 39% of the respondents stated that they would vote for him if he stood for the post of Prime Minister. On the other hand, 29% said that they would vote for Shaukat Aziz, 27% favored Nawaz Sharif, 17% supported Benazir Bhutto and 18% claimed to like Imran Khan. 15%, 14% and 13% of the people supported Fazal-ur-Rehman, Qazi H. Ahmed and Altaf Hussain respectively. (The respondents were requested to name all the candidates that they would support for the Prime Miminster’s position.)

Similar questions were presented to the masses in April 2007. In 2007, 33% of the people felt confident that the government would hold the elections on time, 46% considered it as somewhat likely, 19% thought of it as impossible and 2% stated they had no idea. On the other hand, only 17% thought that it was highly likely that the government will try to hold fair and unbiased elections, 32% viewed it as somewhat likely, 28% were of the view that there was no such possibility and 15% were unsure. 71% were of the opinion that the current government will be able to complete its tenure and 26% believed that it would dissolve earlier.

42% of the respondents felt that elections were very important and would help resolve the political problems plaguing the country. 36% disagreed with this viewpoint and believed that the country needed a revolution and 21% said that they did not know. 36% of them advocated that the opposition parties should form an alliance against the government, 34% suggested that they should work independently, 16% did not offer any opinion and 14% were not sure.

In April 2007, 58% of the people were of the viewpoint that Benazir Bhutto should return to Pakistan before the next elections while 41% opposed her return. In comparison, 57% of the respondents were in favor of Nawaz Sharif returning to the country prior to the upcoming elections and 42% were against his return. 34% of the respondents believed that the two leaders should work together in contrast to 44% who were not in favor of their forming an alliance. 21% did not offer a definite opinion in this regard.

PPP regained its position as the most popular political party in 2007. 17% claimed that they would vote for PPP, 14% supported PML-G, 9% favored MMA, 10% sided with PML-N and 8% said that they would vote for MQM. Tehrik-e-Insaf and ANP won 5% and 1% of the votes respectively. 3% stated that they preferred independent candidates and 23% revealed that they did not plan to vote. While President Musharraf remained the post popular candidate for the Prime Minister’s post, the percentage of people supporting him had shrunk. 29% of those questioned claimed that they would vote for him, 27% asserted that they would support Nawaz Sharif, 25% said that they would vote for Benazir Bhutto, 23% were willing to side with Shaukat Aziz and 18% backed Imran Khan. Fazal-ur-Rehman, Qazi H. Ahmed and Altaf Hussain captured the support of 21%, 14% and 13% of the people respectively. (The respondents were requested to name all the candidates that they would support for the Prime Miminster’s position.)

In response to a similar question, 15% of the people said that they would support President Musharraf if he stood up for Presidential elections, 14% expressed their support for Benazir Bhutto, 10% favored Nawaz Sharif and 8% preferred Qazi H.Ahmen. 42%, however, said that they did not know.

While these results indicate the public’s support for President Musharraf, not a lot of people seem to have faith in the current government’s ability to hold unbiased and timely elections. At the same time, it must be remembered that these surveys only illustrate the public’s opinions up to April 2007 and any events that occur after that date can have a significant impact on the outcome of the upcoming elections.

 These surveys and polls were conducted by Gallup Pakistan, an affiliate of Gallup International, on a sample of over 1100 respondents in urban areas of all four provinces of Pakistan. This sample was statistically selected across all ages, income groups and educational levels. The error   for a sample of this kind is estimated to be +/- 5% at a 95% confidence level.